Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

EE 0xee4b…c2e4 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$5,704 (+26%) realized +$5,676 · open +$28

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR80%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$3,727per market

Trades / day12.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$4,313now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +80%

net ROI/market (all)-1.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+8.4%	-1.9%	80%	80%	+18.5%
≤30d	5	+8.4%	-1.9%	80%	80%	+18.5%
≤90d	5	+8.4%	-1.9%	80%	80%	+18.5%
all	5	+8.4%	-1.9%	80%	80%	+18.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.0 tr/day

realistic slip~14%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-1.9%	80%	+18.5%
10% ← realistic here	-11.3%	80%	+7.2%
15%	-19.9%	40%	-3.2%
20%	-27.7%	0%	-12.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 63% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +31% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1,397 vs −$2 · ×616.79 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2467.14 per $1 lost it wins $2467.14

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$4,313

Realized+$5,676

Unrealized+$28

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$3,727

Trades / day12.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$4,284	$4,313	+$28 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$1,815	+$685	+38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$4,107	+$1,394	+34%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$9,051	+$2,048	+23%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$3,070	+$1,463	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$1,797	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	98¢	$5,501	8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	82¢	$1,307	10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$11,100	11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$1,815	14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$2,518	14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$4,533	14h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	0¢	$2	14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$2,800	20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$3,030	20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	81¢	$9,051	20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$40	20h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,312.65 · official $4,312.65 (match) · 15 history records