Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

EE 0xee4b…6d0b sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$258 (+62%) realized +$391 · open −$133

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +107% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +87% what you keep after slip

Net edge+87%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$69per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+87.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	3	+106.9%	+87.2%	100%	100%	+87.6%
≤90d	3	+106.9%	+87.2%	100%	100%	+87.6%
all	3	+106.9%	+87.2%	100%	100%	+87.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+87.2%	100%	+87.6%
10%	+69.3%	100%	+69.6%
15%	+52.9%	100%	+53.2%
20%	+38.0%	100%	+38.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 45% · top 2 81% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +107% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +107% · $-wt +107% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$87 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$37

Realized+$391

Unrealized−$133

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions3

Markets (closed)3 / 6

History coverage14d

Avg bet$69

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	16¢	3¢	$100	$22	−$78 (-78%)
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw?	Yes	6¢	3¢	$20	$10	−$10 (-49%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	12¢	1¢	$50	$6	−$44 (-89%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 15	$98	+$116	+119%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$97	+$94	+97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$47	+$50	+105%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw?	BUY Yes	6¢	$21	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	12¢	$51	1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	BUY Yes	16¢	$103	1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Cabo Verde	45¢	$98	11d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	50¢	$97	12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	48¢	$47	14d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.35 · official $37.35 (match) · 9 history records