Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:06:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EE 0xee4a…1578 crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$558
sports 8% −$46
crypto 5% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -21.5% -28.9% 54% 54% -38.8%
≤30d 26 -21.5% -28.9% 54% 54% -38.8%
≤90d 26 -21.5% -28.9% 54% 54% -38.8%
all 26 -21.5% -28.9% 54% 54% -38.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 54% -38.8%
10% -35.7% 35% -44.6%
15% -41.9% 35% -50.0%
20% -47.6% 15% -54.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$81 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage6d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $607 −$607 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 +$23 +12%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $328 +$125 +38%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $258 −$257 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $183 +$76 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $122 +$61 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 +$17 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$5 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $224 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $111 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 90¢ $100 16h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 16h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 16h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 17h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 17h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 17h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 17h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $453 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 19h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 28h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 28h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 28h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 28h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records