Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:58:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee49…155e other 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 416d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,116 (+7%) realized +$1,136 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%73W / 67L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$631now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$760
7 days+$148
14 days+$148
30 days+$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$468
politics 22% +$1,247
world 13% −$59
sports 6% +$120
tech 5% −$260
weather 5% −$512
crypto 3% +$36
economics 1% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -11.3% -19.7% 61% 55% -7.5%
≤30d 39 -9.0% -17.6% 59% 54% -7.0%
≤90d 69 -31.8% -38.3% 43% 39% -21.7%
all 140 -7.2% -16.0% 52% 49% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 49% -3.2%
10% -24.1% 41% -12.4%
15% -31.4% 34% -20.9%
20% -38.1% 25% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$79 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

416d coverage
Net worth$631
Realized+$1,136
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses73 / 67
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)140 / 146
History coverage416d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $290 $317 +$26 (+9%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Yes 33¢ 16¢ $90 $44 −$46 (-51%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23? No 92¢ 85¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? No 61¢ 66¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $15 +$13 +84%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $202 +$112 +56%
France to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 22 $298 +$36 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $201 +$96 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? Jun 22 $310 −$310 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22? Jun 22 $202 +$12 +6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $303 −$303 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $121 +$72 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $354 −$350 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $301 +$32 +10%
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $301 +$43 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $213 −$210 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $500 +$14 +3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $528 +$874 +166%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $151 +$65 +43%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $251 +$30 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $152 +$98 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $133 +$43 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $131 +$75 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $302 −$302 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $273 +$192 +70%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 +$34 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $141 +$65 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $303 +$144 +48%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 16 $245 −$204 -83%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $204 +$96 +47%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $104 +$164 +157%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $46 +$54 +117%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? May 18 $395 −$394 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 02 $268 +$132 +49%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 15 $109 +$91 +84%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $90 +$40 +45%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $115 +$33 +29%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 07 $160 −$45 -28%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 03 $51 +$12 +24%
Will FCSB win on 2025-11-27? Apr 01 $36 −$36 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Apr 01 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July? Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $201 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $28 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? BUY No 61¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23? BUY No 92¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? BUY No 61¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23? BUY No 92¢ $12 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $315 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 11h
France to score first vs. Iraq? SELL Yes 99¢ $334 11h
France to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 88¢ $298 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $297 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? SELL No 0¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? BUY No 72¢ $4 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22? SELL No 81¢ $106 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $201 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 35h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 35h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22? SELL No 83¢ $108 35h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $303 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $333 39h
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 100¢ $344 39h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 41h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22? BUY No 75¢ $202 41h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? SELL No 1¢ $3 41h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? BUY Yes 66¢ $102 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $631.36 · official $631.52 (match) · 772 history records