Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:45:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EE 0xee45…200a sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$114 (+9%) realized +$110 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate81%17W / 4L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$266
14 days+$266
30 days+$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$89
sports 34% +$140
crypto 15% +$59
politics 5% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +43.4% +29.7% 90% 80% +36.3%
≤30d 10 +43.4% +29.7% 90% 80% +36.3%
≤90d 10 +43.4% +29.7% 90% 80% +36.3%
all 21 +22.5% +10.8% 81% 71% +17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.8% 71% +17.8%
10% +0.2% 62% +6.6%
15% -9.5% 48% -3.7%
20% -18.3% 38% -13.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$33 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.22 per $1 lost it wins $3.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$110
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses17 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 26
History coverage230d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $37 $40 +$2 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $60 +$6 +10%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $41 +$50 +123%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $30 +$15 +50%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $50 +$15 +29%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$50 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$25 +62%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $61 +$28 +46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$123 +121%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? Nov 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 10 $20 +$12 +59%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $40 +$23 +59%
Manchester City vs. Liverpool: Both Teams to Score Nov 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $42 +$9 +22%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 09 $40 +$11 +28%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs MOUZ (BO3) Nov 08 $31 −$31 -100%
Houston vs. UCF Nov 08 $30 +$28 +92%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 07 $47 +$6 +12%
FC Midtjylland vs. Celtic FC: Both Teams to Score Nov 07 $12 +$7 +59%
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? Nov 05 $124 +$9 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $66 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C SELL Grind Back 100¢ $91 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY Grind Back 44¢ $41 6h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 66¢ $30 6h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 77¢ $50 17h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $71 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 3d
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 68¢ $61 3d
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? AND Will Czechia win on 2026- BUY 56¢ $20 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 90¢ $60 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 81¢ $20 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18 BUY 34¢ $82 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 45¢ $102 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $38 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $32 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 32¢ $143 5d
Manchester City vs. Liverpool: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 67¢ $20 224d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 225d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 225d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 79¢ $5 225d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 82¢ $25 225d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 83¢ $12 225d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs MOUZ (BO3) BUY MOUZ 19¢ $4 226d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs MOUZ (BO3) BUY MOUZ 19¢ $2 226d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs MOUZ (BO3) BUY MOUZ 55¢ $25 226d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 78¢ $20 226d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 78¢ $20 226d
Houston vs. UCF BUY Houston 52¢ $30 226d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 SELL Yes 94¢ $47 226d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.36 · official $71.36 (match) · 59 history records