Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:27:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee45…25a8 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 611d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,715 (+19%) realized +$3,854 · open −$139
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$499per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,424now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% +$6,637
other 27% −$1,578
sports 21% −$1,292
world 1% −$180
tech 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +172.5% +146.6% 100% 100% +146.6%
≤90d 9 -51.1% -55.8% 22% 22% -38.3%
all 33 -1.2% -10.6% 39% 39% +9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 39% +9.5%
10% -19.1% 36% -1.0%
15% -26.9% 33% -10.6%
20% -34.1% 33% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$679 vs −$254 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

611d coverage
Net worth$1,424
Realized+$3,854
Unrealized−$139
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions7
Markets (closed)33 / 40
History coverage611d
Avg bet$499
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $875 $784 −$91 (-10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $345 $393 +$48 (+14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $133 $154 +$21 (+16%)
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Yes 29¢ 14¢ $102 $51 −$51 (-50%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 16¢ 5¢ $80 $25 −$55 (-69%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 8¢ 14¢ $8 $14 +$6 (+83%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $21 $3 −$18 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $153 +$265 +172%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 22 $533 +$135 +25%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $800 −$232 -29%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup? Apr 01 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Mar 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Mar 18 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Mar 18 $36 +$22 +62%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? Mar 17 $11 +$9 +78%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $34 +$104 +306%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Mar 15 $22 +$78 +354%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 14 $108 −$65 -60%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 13 $36 +$64 +178%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Mar 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08? Mar 06 $140 −$140 -100%
US forces in Iran before August? Mar 06 $237 −$237 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-18? Jan 08 $264 +$136 +52%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 22 $783 +$567 +72%
Champions League: Inter Milan vs. Barcelona (To Advance) May 22 $334 −$144 -43%
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League? May 22 $180 −$180 -100%
Champions League: Arsenal vs. PSG (To Advance) May 22 $704 −$704 -100%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 22 $405 +$495 +122%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? May 01 $150 −$150 -100%
Super Bowl LIX Winner May 01 $2,121 −$2,121 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-16? Apr 16 $100 +$316 +316%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 09 $9,998 +$6,637 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $34 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $29 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $16 1h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $104 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $153 15d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $821 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $277 35d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 57¢ $197 35d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 35¢ $21 51d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 51d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 51d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 51d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 51d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 51d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 51d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 51d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 51d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 51d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 51d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 51d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 51d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 51d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 51d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 35¢ $16 51d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 30¢ $300 51d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 30¢ $60 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,423.99 · official $1,429.49 (match) · 304 history records