Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:06:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee41…bb19 politics 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 618d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate25%6W / 18L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$796per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$4
other 37% −$159
sports 4% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 24 -1.0% -10.4% 25% 4% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 4% -10.3%
10% -19.0% 4% -18.9%
15% -26.8% 4% -26.7%
20% -34.0% 4% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$2,251) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

618d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses6 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage618d
Avg bet$796
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $317 $317 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Everton win on 2025-09-29? Apr 15 $58 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $300 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 24 $300 $0 -0%
Will Paul Lim win the PDC World Darts Championship? Dec 22 $305 −$152 -50%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 21 $116 $0 -0%
Will Google be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 25 $116 $0 +0%
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 29 $10 $0 -0%
Mets vs. Padres Sep 29 $58 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 29 $9 $0 -0%
Jets vs. Stars Jul 29 $58 $0 +0%
Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election? May 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $11 $0 -0%
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? Mar 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Mar 18 $3 $0 +2%
Will Everton win on 2024-12-07? Mar 18 $56 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jan 17 $1 $0 +74%
Will any other Republican Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Nov 09 $4,267 +$4 +0%
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024? Oct 14 $2,277 −$2 -0%
Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024? Oct 14 $2,167 −$2 -0%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? Oct 14 $2,268 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 14 $2,311 −$2 -0%
Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Oct 14 $2,251 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 14 $2,314 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $317 1h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $314 1h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $315 69d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $300 126d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $300 128d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $31 150d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $25 150d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $30 150d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $80 150d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $24 150d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $24 150d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $24 150d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $61 150d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $2 150d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $300 150d
Will Paul Lim win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $47 183d
Will Paul Lim win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $82 183d
Will Paul Lim win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $110 183d
Will Paul Lim win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $48 183d
Will Paul Lim win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $18 183d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $116 184d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $116 210d
Will Google be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $116 240d
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 100¢ $10 267d
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY No 100¢ $10 267d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 329d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 329d
Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $9 406d
Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $9 406d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $11 462d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.74 · official $316.74 (match) · 162 history records