Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:01:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EE 0xee3e…1dc5 world 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 263d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$777 (+63%) realized +$774 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$805
7 days+$805
14 days+$805
30 days+$805
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% +$930
politics 12% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+35.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +214.5% +184.5% 100% 100% +184.5%
≤30d 1 +214.5% +184.5% 100% 100% +184.5%
≤90d 1 +214.5% +184.5% 100% 100% +184.5%
all 7 +50.2% +35.9% 57% 43% +49.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.9% 43% +49.0%
10% +22.9% 43% +34.8%
15% +11.0% 43% +21.7%
20% +0.1% 43% +9.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +214% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$257 vs −$84 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.1 per $1 lost it wins $4.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

263d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$774
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage263d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? No 34¢ 36¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jun 20 $375 +$805 +214%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Jan 06 $401 −$67 -17%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5? Jan 06 $130 +$70 +54%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 31 $150 −$150 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? Oct 28 $60 +$2 +2%
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17? Oct 17 $51 +$152 +297%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? Oct 03 $34 −$34 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $35 1h
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $265 160d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $110 165d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5? BUY Yes 64¢ $64 231d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 6¢ $50 231d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5? BUY Yes 66¢ $66 232d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 234d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $61 235d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $60 235d
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17? SELL No 35¢ $17 245d
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17? SELL No 40¢ $4 245d
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17? SELL No 37¢ $15 245d
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17? SELL No 40¢ $72 245d
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17? SELL No 41¢ $95 245d
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17? BUY No 10¢ $50 245d
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17? BUY No 10¢ $1 245d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? BUY No 85¢ $34 259d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $334 259d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $100 260d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 260d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $300 262d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.57 · official $37.57 (match) · 24 history records