Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee3c…04eb other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 608d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%6W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 78% −$7
other 14% −$2
world 2% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 2% −$2
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 27 +0.2% -9.3% 11% 0% -9.6%
all 40 -0.1% -9.7% 15% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

608d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses6 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage608d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $60 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $93 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $94 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 30 $46 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $48 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $47 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 09 $3 $0 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $11 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 27 $11 $0 -3%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 13 $29 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 01 $35 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $14 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $242 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $510 −$1 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 27 $1,573 −$3 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 26 $1,155 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $8 16h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $8 19h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 39h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 41h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $11 5d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $11 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 7d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 7d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 8d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 8d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $11 24d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $11 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $21 24d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 29d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 29d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $46 34d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.05 · official $28.05 (match) · 263 history records