Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:58:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EE 0xee3c…0e17 world 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$23 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate67%54W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$927now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 81% +$6
sports 6% −$11
world 6% −$14
crypto 4% +$2
other 2% −$5
economics 1% +$1
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.7% -10.2% 67% 33% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -14.4% -22.5% 70% 30% -9.8%
≤90d 25 -2.7% -12.0% 76% 40% -9.3%
all 81 -7.7% -16.5% 67% 28% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 28% -11.4%
10% -24.5% 14% -19.9%
15% -31.8% 4% -27.6%
20% -38.5% 1% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$927
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses54 / 27
Open positions22
Markets (closed)81 / 103
History coverage255d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $787 $787 −$0 (-0%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 99¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 97¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 78¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+28%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 67¢ 90¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+35%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 81¢ 86¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 91¢ 93¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 80¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $799 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +33%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May Jun 10 $1 $0 +25%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $14 $0 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $7 +$3 +40%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 07 $3 +$1 +26%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 07 $5 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 15 $1 $0 +11%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 15 $1 $0 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Apr 15 $1 $0 +16%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 15 $2 +$1 +37%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Apr 15 $4 $0 +11%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 15 $8 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $5 $0 +9%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $3 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $15 −$2 -16%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $6 $0 +2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 08 $4 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Mar 08 $2 $0 +14%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Mar 08 $3 $0 +5%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Mar 08 $6 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026 Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan Feb 22 $1 $0 +5%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 22 $1 $0 +10%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 22 $1 $0 +19%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 22 $1 $0 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Feb 22 $1 $0 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Feb 22 $1 $0 +24%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 22 $2 $0 +5%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Feb 22 $2 $0 +6%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 22 $2 $0 +8%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $3 $0 +8%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $6 $0 +2%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 19 $1 $0 -48%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $4 $0 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 12? Jan 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 12 $1 $0 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $788 1h
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $787 4d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $787 5d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 98¢ $22 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 7d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 13d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $2 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $4 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $3 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 13d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $1 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $2 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $3 13d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 13d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $1 13d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $1 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 13d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 46d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 7¢ $12 46d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 46d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 46d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 46d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 46d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 46d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 47d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 47d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $5 47d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $2 47d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $5 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $926.69 · official $926.68 (match) · 458 history records