Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:26:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee35…0015 other 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$67 (+5%) realized +$86 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%9W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$326
7 days−$47
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$401
other 45% +$382
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -23.8% -31.1% 27% 27% -13.2%
≤30d 28 -7.5% -16.3% 32% 32% -9.6%
≤90d 28 -7.5% -16.3% 32% 32% -9.6%
all 28 -7.5% -16.3% 32% 32% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 32% -9.6%
10% -24.3% 32% -18.2%
15% -31.6% 29% -26.1%
20% -38.3% 29% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$32 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$86
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses9 / 19
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage8d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Paper Rex 39¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $152 −$149 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 −$50 -50%
Senegal to win the second half? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $81 +$104 +128%
Sweden to win the second half? Jun 15 $102 +$103 +101%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $81 +$123 +152%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $51 −$42 -82%
Australia to win the second half? Jun 14 $51 −$2 -3%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $51 −$22 -43%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $51 +$95 +185%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$13 -65%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +112%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $25 −$13 -53%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$26 +101%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$99 +194%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 12 $23 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 +$7 +33%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$39 +376%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming $0 15m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 34¢ $51 57m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 35¢ $12 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner SELL Paper Rex 79¢ $68 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 50¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 49¢ $101 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $51 21h
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $14 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 24h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 44h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 44h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under $51 45h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $51 45h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $102 46h
Senegal to win the second half? SELL Yes $0 2d
Senegal to win the second half? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $26 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $186 4d
Sweden to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $204 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 43¢ $81 4d
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $205 4d
Sweden to win the second half? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 4d
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $81 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over $9 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 4d
Australia to win the second half? SELL Yes 50¢ $49 5d
Australia to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 5d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 5d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? SELL Yes 15¢ $29 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 55 history records