Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EE 0xee31…4735 world 27 markets active 14h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10,321 (+6%) realized +$9,416 · open +$905
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate86%12W / 2L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$6,039per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$29,893now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days−$398
14 days−$398
30 days+$2,997
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 92% +$5,269
politics 8% +$5,059
other 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -6.2% -15.1% 67% 33% -11.2%
≤30d 9 -2.4% -11.7% 78% 33% -5.8%
≤90d 14 +7.1% -3.1% 86% 43% -2.9%
all 14 +7.1% -3.1% 86% 43% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.1% 43% -2.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.4% 29% -12.2%
15% -20.9% 14% -20.7%
20% -28.6% 7% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$894 vs −$649 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×8.26 per $1 lost it wins $8.26
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$29,893
Realized+$9,416
Unrealized+$905
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses12 / 2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)14 / 27
History coverage69d
Avg bet$6,039
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $13,715 $13,997 +$282 (+2%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? No 94¢ 98¢ $6,026 $6,260 +$234 (+4%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 89¢ 94¢ $3,743 $3,975 +$231 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 81¢ $2,109 $2,119 +$10 (+0%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $1,557 $1,580 +$23 (+1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 73¢ 81¢ $798 $886 +$88 (+11%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $381 $397 +$16 (+4%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $299 $303 +$4 (+1%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $281 $299 +$18 (+6%)
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No 73¢ 72¢ $39 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes 73¢ 70¢ $38 $36 −$1 (-4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $385 +$112 +29%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $413 +$9 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $1,054 +$146 +14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1,532 −$1,142 -74%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1,356 −$157 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 12 $16,796 +$632 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $24,740 +$460 +2%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $2,353 +$43 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 31 $24,482 +$2,892 +12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 30 $23,361 +$1,120 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $18,391 +$250 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 13 $4,996 +$2,544 +51%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl Apr 13 $4,955 +$1,112 +22%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 13 $3,438 +$1,404 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 81¢ $97 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 79¢ $83 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 78¢ $135 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $316 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 72¢ $280 16h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 68¢ $203 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $504 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $492 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $498 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $422 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL No 100¢ $423 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $792 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $407 2d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $1 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $543 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $601 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 21¢ $391 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $445 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 82¢ $1,199 2d
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? BUY No 73¢ $39 2d
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $24 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 77¢ $926 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $989 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 94¢ $245 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY No 97¢ $97 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 94¢ $43 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 92¢ $1,028 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY No 97¢ $93 2d
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,893.25 · official $29,894.06 (match) · 93 history records