Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:20:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee2f…69f6 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 436d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$2
world 30% +$2
politics 13% $0
crypto 5% −$1
economics 4% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.4% -6.4% 50% 0% -6.6%
≤30d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 43% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 43% 0% -8.4%
all 33 -1.5% -10.9% 48% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -9.1%
10% -19.4% 0% -17.8%
15% -27.2% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

436d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage436d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $30 +$2 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $11 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $34 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $4 $0 -10%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $35 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 +5%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 19 $16 $0 +2%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? May 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 25 $5 $0 +4%
Will Finland win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 24 $5 $0 +5%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 09 $20 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $22 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1500 and $1600 on May 9? May 08 $2 −$1 -68%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April? May 06 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 03 $23 $0 +2%
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days? Apr 14 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $18 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $14 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 44¢ $30 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $11 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $11 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $35 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 73¢ $34 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 5¢ $3 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 5¢ $4 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $35 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $35 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $8 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $21 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $28 29d
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $6 362d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $17 369d
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 91¢ $5 391d
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $5 391d
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $5 392d
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 95¢ $6 392d
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 94¢ $6 394d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? SELL No 99¢ $5 394d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? BUY No 98¢ $5 394d
Will Denmark win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? BUY No 96¢ $5 395d
Will Finland win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? BUY No 95¢ $5 397d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $5 397d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? BUY No 95¢ $5 399d
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 400d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records