Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:11:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee2f…c26c world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 445d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%10W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% $0
other 22% −$1
politics 6% $0
sports 0% −$3
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.3% 38% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 15 -2.6% -11.8% 40% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -2.6% -11.8% 40% 7% -9.6%
all 30 -7.8% -16.6% 33% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 3% -10.0%
10% -24.6% 3% -18.7%
15% -31.8% 3% -26.5%
20% -38.5% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

445d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses10 / 20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage445d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 91¢ 92¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 71¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $3 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $7 $0 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $8 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $20 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $7 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $43 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $47 +$1 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $42 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $50 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +5%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Dec 13 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Indianapolis Colts? Jun 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 06 $27 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 02 $28 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $43 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 8h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 8h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $31 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $11 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $42 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 19h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $22 25h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $22 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $47 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $47 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $44 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $13 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 34¢ $21 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $20 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $27 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.17 · official $43.12 · 102 history records