Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:16:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee2d…b6b9 world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$2
other 11% −$1
politics 5% $0
tech 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 20% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 16 -4.3% -13.4% 44% 12% -9.3%
≤90d 16 -4.3% -13.4% 44% 12% -9.3%
all 29 -9.1% -17.7% 45% 7% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 7% -9.9%
10% -25.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -32.8% 0% -26.4%
20% -39.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage462d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 69¢ 46¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-33%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 33¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $41 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $6 +$1 +13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $22 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $18 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $33 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $48 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $18 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $48 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $3 $0 +15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $36 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $6 $0 +4%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +3%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Shifty Schiff" this week? Apr 18 $6 $0 +4%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 18 $6 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Apr 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Apr 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $8 $0 +0%
Wofford vs. Tennessee Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 18 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $33 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $28 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $5 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $18 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $13 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $13 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $47 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $48 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $48 25h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $13 29h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $28 29h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $41 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 41h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 43h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $18 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $5 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $22 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 95¢ $18 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 94¢ $18 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $42 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $1 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 69¢ $39 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.64 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records