Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:00:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

EE 0xee2a…1249 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d

COPY-WORTHYcopy this ⚠ Small sample

Total PnL +$946 (+29%) realized +$964 · open −$18

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +117% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +89% what you keep after slip

Net edge+89%after slip

Net WR64%break-even

Win rate64%16W / 9L

Drawdown63%max

Avg bet$105per market

Trades / day3.8pace

Fees−$14est.

Kalshi-fit39%portable

Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$431

7 days+$137

14 days+$993

30 days+$993

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +64%

net ROI/market (all)+96.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	+112.6%	+92.4%	53%	53%	-2.9%
≤30d	25	+117.0%	+96.4%	64%	64%	+24.9%
≤90d	25	+117.0%	+96.4%	64%	64%	+24.9%
all	25	+117.0%	+96.4%	64%	64%	+24.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+96.4%	64%	+24.9%
10%	+77.6%	64%	+12.9%
15%	+60.4%	64%	+2.0%
20%	+44.7%	52%	-8.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +117% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +193% → late +47% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$119 vs −$101 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$159

Realized+$964

Unrealized−$18

Win rate (resolved)64%

Wins / losses16 / 9

Est. fees paid−$14

Open positions1

Markets (closed)25 / 31

History coverage12d

Avg bet$105

Trades / day3.8

Drawdown63%

Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 25 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	64¢	57¢	$177	$159	−$18 (-10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$152	+$83	+55%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$202	+$106	+52%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria?	Jun 23	$21	+$161	+785%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$152	+$181	+118%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score	Jun 22	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$156	+$62	+40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$34	+$88	+262%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 18	$60	−$60	-100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 18	$7	−$7	-100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 18	$151	−$151	-100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 18	$99	−$99	-100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 18	$355	−$355	-100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 18	$23	−$23	-100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$172	+$121	+70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$5	+$66	+1288%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$171	+$74	+43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$94	+$45	+48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$71	+$172	+243%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$101	+$94	+93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$102	+$255	+249%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$102	+$176	+172%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$125	+$136	+109%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on	Jun 12	$105	−$104	-99%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Canada?	Jun 12	$42	+$82	+196%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$179	1h
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Panama vs. Croa	BUY	26¢	$102	4h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals	BUY	32¢	$153	8h
Pedro Neto: 1+ assists AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals	BUY	23¢	$94	11h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY	64¢	$152	11h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria?	BUY Yes	11¢	$21	24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$202	24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$333	24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	45¢	$152	36h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	36¢	$102	36h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Argentina win on 2	BUY	30¢	$102	36h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$122	6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$156	6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	27¢	$34	6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$71	6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$172	6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$245	6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$171	7d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$94	7d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$244	7d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$20	8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	68¢	$151	8d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$51	8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$196	8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$101	9d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$357	9d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	28¢	$102	9d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	3¢	$15	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.02 · official $159.02 (match) · 57 history records