Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:00:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
EE 0xee27…c5e2 crypto 62 markets active 3d ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,728 (-45%) realized −$1,728 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%32W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$189
14 days−$189
30 days−$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$248
world 27% −$1,043
other 15% −$442
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -67.6% -70.7% 0% 0% -69.1%
≤30d 3 -67.6% -70.7% 0% 0% -69.1%
≤90d 7 -86.1% -87.5% 0% 0% -93.3%
all 62 -20.0% -27.6% 52% 52% -50.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 52% -50.6%
10% -34.5% 48% -55.3%
15% -40.8% 6% -59.6%
20% -46.6% 6% -63.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -93% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$73 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,728
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses32 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage458d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $96 −$94 -98%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $266 −$253 -95%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $516 −$516 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $244 −$244 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $51 −$51 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $59 −$59 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Feb 22 $332 −$332 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Feb 22 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Feb 22 $5 +$25 +525%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Feb 20 $240 +$60 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Feb 20 $24 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Feb 20 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Feb 20 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Feb 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Feb 20 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Feb 20 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Feb 19 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Feb 19 $196 +$49 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Feb 19 $157 +$39 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Feb 19 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Feb 19 $24 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Feb 19 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Feb 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Feb 19 $128 +$32 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Feb 19 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Feb 19 $24 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Feb 19 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Feb 19 $95 +$24 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Feb 19 $76 +$19 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Feb 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Feb 19 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Feb 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Feb 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Feb 19 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Feb 19 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Feb 19 $26 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Feb 19 $50 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Feb 19 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Feb 19 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Feb 19 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Feb 19 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Feb 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Feb 19 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Feb 19 $35 +$10 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Feb 19 $24 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Feb 19 $19 +$10 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $98 2d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 2d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $87 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $62 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $96 5d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 199 history records