Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:59:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EE 0xee23…6b88 crypto 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$305 (+35%) realized +$305 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate70%23W / 10L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$274
7 days+$309
14 days+$300
30 days+$300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$307
sports 2% +$1
weather 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +22.2% +10.5% 81% 65% +23.6%
≤30d 33 +10.3% -0.2% 70% 58% +22.1%
≤90d 33 +10.3% -0.2% 70% 58% +22.1%
all 33 +10.3% -0.2% 70% 58% +22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 58% +22.1%
10% -9.8% 52% +10.4%
15% -18.5% 45% -0.3%
20% -26.5% 36% -10.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$2 · ×6.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.85 per $1 lost it wins $14.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$305
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses23 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage12d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$13 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$17 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$23 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$8 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $81 +$78 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $122 +$37 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $139 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$16 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$29 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$18 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$14 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$16 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $13 +$13 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$4 -68%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 +$1 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $51 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $81 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $22 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $122 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $111 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $9 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $28 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $31 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $31 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $44 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $13 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams t BUY 34¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records