Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EE 0xee21…083c sports 128 markets active 17h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,732 (+11%) realized +$1,732 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%66W / 62L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$114est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$139
7 days+$154
14 days+$240
30 days−$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,692
other 1% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +25.0% +13.1% 75% 75% +5.2%
≤30d 29 -4.1% -13.2% 52% 52% -14.3%
≤90d 82 +3.8% -6.1% 46% 46% -9.3%
all 128 +9.3% -1.1% 52% 52% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 52% +0.4%
10% -10.6% 50% -9.2%
15% -19.2% 47% -18.0%
20% -27.1% 38% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$102 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,732
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses66 / 62
Est. fees paid−$114
Open positions0
Markets (closed)128 / 128
History coverage162d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 128 Trades
no open positions (60 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $129 +$71 +55%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $131 +$69 +52%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $132 −$132 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $45 +$55 +122%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $135 +$65 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $139 +$61 +44%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $123 −$122 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $111 +$89 +79%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $164 +$86 +52%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 08 $115 +$85 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $135 −$133 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $101 +$49 +48%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $129 −$128 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $125 −$124 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $87 +$113 +129%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $111 −$110 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 30 $99 −$98 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 29 $115 +$85 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $119 +$81 +67%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $77 −$76 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $89 −$88 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $113 +$87 +76%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $113 −$112 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $109 −$108 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $65 −$64 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $67 −$66 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $67 +$133 +197%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $49 −$48 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 19 $75 +$125 +165%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 17 $102 −$2 -2%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $79 +$121 +152%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $157 +$43 +27%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $117 −$114 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $75 +$125 +165%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $155 +$45 +29%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 08 $73 −$72 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $121 +$79 +65%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $145 +$55 +38%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 06 $64 +$36 +57%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 04 $120 −$117 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 03 $122 −$119 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic May 01 $168 −$165 -98%
Suns vs. Thunder May 01 $203 −$3 -2%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 30 $91 −$90 -98%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 28 $129 −$127 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $172 +$222 +129%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $145 −$142 -98%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 25 $84 −$82 -98%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 25 $98 +$99 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $129 17h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $131 38h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 66¢ $25 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 66¢ $107 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $44 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $1 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $135 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $139 5d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 61¢ $123 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 55¢ $111 7d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $33 8d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $131 8d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Leviatán Esports 57¢ $115 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $135 12d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 67¢ $101 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $129 14d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ $125 15d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 55¢ $111 16d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 49¢ $99 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $87 18d
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $115 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 59¢ $119 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 38¢ $77 21d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 44¢ $89 22d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 56¢ $113 23d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 56¢ $113 24d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 54¢ $109 25d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 32¢ $65 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 33¢ $67 27d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 32¢ $49 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 208 history records