Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:22:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee21…3721 world 644 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 115d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,137 (-5%) realized −$2,562 · open −$575
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate42%278W / 390L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day27.5pace
Fees−$131est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$540now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 116d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$2,911
other 19% +$200
politics 16% −$958
crypto 10% −$202
sports 6% −$234
tech 3% −$386
culture 3% −$177
finance 2% −$33
weather 1% −$160
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -81.6% -83.4% 8% 6% -66.6%
≤30d 172 -24.6% -31.8% 36% 26% -35.9%
≤90d 491 -21.2% -28.7% 41% 20% -22.6%
all 668 -20.2% -27.8% 42% 19% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.8% 19% -20.9%
10% ← realistic here -34.7% 13% -28.4%
15% -41.0% 9% -35.4%
20% -46.8% 7% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$44 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$540
Realized−$2,562
Unrealized−$575
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses278 / 390
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$131
Open positions27
Markets (closed)668 / 644
History coverage116d ⚠
Avg bet$98
Trades / day27.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 668 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 2¢ 1¢ $702 $264 −$438 (-62%)
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled? No 51¢ 48¢ $51 $48 −$3 (-6%)
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? No 20¢ 39¢ $20 $39 +$19 (+95%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 72¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-9%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 52¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-5%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1.5% and 2%? No 63¢ 87¢ $13 $17 +$5 (+39%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 27¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-19%)
Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026? No 81¢ 68¢ $16 $14 −$3 (-16%)
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? No 48¢ 65¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+35%)
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? No 26¢ 19¢ $13 $10 −$4 (-27%)
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 17¢ 3¢ $60 $9 −$51 (-85%)
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 46¢ 44¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? No 41¢ 88¢ $3 $8 +$4 (+116%)
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No 38¢ 38¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? No 31¢ 6¢ $31 $6 −$25 (-82%)
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 40¢ 14¢ $16 $6 −$10 (-65%)
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026? Yes 52¢ 28¢ $10 $6 −$5 (-47%)
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-56%)
Will McCormick merge with Unilever Foods by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+29%)
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-57%)
Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 4¢ $6 $1 −$6 (-87%)
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? Yes 63¢ 1¢ $13 $0 −$12 (-99%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 53¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+58%)
Will Semir Efendić be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 188 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Suns vs. Knicks Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Indiana (-4.5) Jun 16 $531 −$531 -100%
Wild vs. Kings Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Chiefs vs. Raiders Jun 16 $264 −$264 -100%
Oregon vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Jun 16 $116 −$116 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 16 $97 −$97 -100%
Cowboys vs. Giants Jun 16 $506 −$506 -100%
Spread: Texas (-7.5) Jun 16 $117 −$117 -100%
Rams vs. Panthers: O/U 44.5 Jun 16 $0 −$132 -132232%
Canadiens vs. Blues Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-2.5) Jun 16 $290 −$290 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Packers vs. Bears Jun 16 $500 −$500 -100%
Avalanche vs. Hurricanes Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-9.5) Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5) Jun 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Lions vs. Bears Jun 16 $400 −$400 -100%
Spread: Bills (-11.5) Jun 16 $124 −$124 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5 Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Spread: Patriots (-3.5) Jun 16 $2,120 −$2,120 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-11.5) Jun 16 $199 −$199 -100%
Warriors vs. Clippers Jun 16 $138 −$138 -100%
Red Wings vs. Senators Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
49ers vs. Eagles Jun 16 $348 −$348 -100%
Utah vs. Devils Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Jets vs. Senators Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Spread: Oregon (-2.5) Jun 16 $116 −$116 -100%
Spread: Georgia (-6.5) Jun 16 $193 −$193 -100%
Spread: Texas (-6.5) Jun 16 $116 −$116 -100%
Arizona vs. SMU Mustangs Jun 16 $145 −$145 -100%
Canucks vs. Sabres Jun 16 $110 −$110 -100%
Juventus FC vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Spread: Magic (-7.5) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Indiana (-7.5) Jun 16 $348 −$348 -100%
Bills vs. Broncos Jun 16 $595 −$595 -100%
Spread: Falcons (-3.5) Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Navy (-7.5) Jun 16 $215 −$215 -100%
Rams vs. Panthers: O/U 46.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Ittihad Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $126 −$126 -100%
Spread: Raptors (-2.5) Jun 16 $120 −$120 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-8.5) Jun 16 $262 −$262 -100%
Pelicans vs. Bulls Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Spread: Eagles (-3.5) Jun 16 $448 −$448 -100%
Thunder vs. Rockets Jun 16 $43 −$43 -100%
Spread: Bears (-3.5) Jun 16 $120 −$120 -100%
Spread: Duke (-3.5) Jun 16 $116 −$116 -100%
Hornets vs. Warriors Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-01-05? Jun 16 $130 −$130 -100%
Spread: Marist Red Foxes (-11.5) Jun 16 $120 −$120 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $25 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $100 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $40 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $10 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $20 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $20 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $200 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $60 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $0 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $0 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $0 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $0 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $0 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $0 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $0 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $26 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $200 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $254 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $250 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $51 20h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 40¢ $80 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 30¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 26¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 26¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $166 3d
Chud the Builder convicted of attempted murder? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 5d
Will any AI model reach 1540 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 5d
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 54¢ $6 5d
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $539.74 · official $539.61 (match) · 3500 history records