Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:52:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EE 0xee16…16a2 sports 1156 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$193 (-1%) realized −$195 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%568W / 578L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day27.5pace
Fees−$201est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$104
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$271
other 9% +$52
politics 4% +$21
world 3% +$32
finance 2% −$2
weather 1% −$19
tech 0% +$86
crypto 0% −$32
culture 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 +6.3% -3.8% 39% 38% -10.8%
≤30d 424 +7.3% -2.9% 46% 45% -8.9%
≤90d 999 -1.3% -10.7% 47% 46% -11.0%
all 1146 +2.6% -7.1% 50% 47% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 47% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 45% -18.7%
15% -24.1% 42% -26.6%
20% -31.6% 36% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized−$195
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses568 / 578
Est. fees paid−$201
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1146 / 1156
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day27.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals No 70¢ 65¢ $101 $94 −$7 (-7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 22¢ $20 $39 +$19 (+96%)
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 Under 54¢ 56¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 0.5 Under 60¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Prelims) Nursulton Ruziboev 66¢ 64¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles vs. Saitama Seibu Lions Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles 41¢ 100¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+143%)
Chiba Lotte Marines vs. Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks 56¢ 51¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 11¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 298 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $8 +$4 +52%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 27 $7 +$10 +146%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 27 $13 +$8 +62%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $5 +$6 +119%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 26 $20 −$3 -16%
Map Handicap: ISG (-1.5) vs MIBR Academy (+1.5) Jun 26 $20 +$10 +48%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $10 +$7 +73%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Playoff Jun 26 $5 +$18 +344%
Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) Jun 26 $20 −$4 -18%
Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Ruse (+1.5) Jun 26 $5 +$6 +124%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions Jun 26 $6 +$6 +97%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants Jun 26 $5 +$9 +180%
Valorant: X-CAST vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Se Jun 26 $15 +$9 +57%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Set Handicap: Draper (-1.5) vs Humbert (+1.5) Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Bald (+1.5) Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 26 $5 +$5 +85%
Map Handicap: BST (-1.5) vs 9z Team (+1.5) Jun 26 $2 +$3 +216%
Valorant: ARETE vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 26 $15 −$15 -99%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $8 −$8 -98%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $8 −$8 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $8 +$3 +46%
Leroy Sané: 2+ shots Jun 25 $6 +$9 +156%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $22 −$22 -99%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $5 +$6 +109%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 25 $5 +$8 +165%
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $2 +$3 +216%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $8 +$4 +51%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular S Jun 25 $12 −$12 -98%
Viktor Gyökeres: 5+ shots Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ shots Jun 25 $11 −$10 -98%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $15 +$17 +112%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $13 +$17 +134%
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 25 $8 −$7 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lina Gjorcheska vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 25 $5 +$12 +238%
Set Handicap: Jeanjean (-1.5) vs Volynets (+1.5) Jun 25 $3 +$18 +712%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 25 $8 +$25 +325%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 25 $8 +$7 +97%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $5 +$10 +188%
Set Handicap: Volynets (-1.5) vs Jeanjean (+1.5) Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Smith (+1.5) Jun 25 $5 +$6 +129%
Map Handicap: TL.A (-1.5) vs Ghools Esports (+1.5) Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 25 $3 +$7 +276%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $102 1h
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $17 4h
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 4h
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $6 4h
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 5h
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $3 6h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 60¢ $30 7h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 61¢ $13 8h
Map Handicap: ISG (-1.5) vs MIBR Academy (+1.5) BUY MIBR Academy 67¢ $20 16h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY MIBR Academy 44¢ $8 16h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 45¢ $5 17h
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Playoff BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 22¢ $5 18h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Fabian Marozsan 29¢ $5 20h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 40¢ $7 21h
Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Ruse (+1.5) BUY Muchova 44¢ $5 21h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova BUY Gabriela Ruse 33¢ $5 21h
Set Handicap: Draper (-1.5) vs Humbert (+1.5) BUY Draper 39¢ $5 22h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants BUY Lotte Giants 35¢ $5 22h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 50¢ $6 22h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Isurus 59¢ $13 22h
Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) BUY Yellow Submarine 45¢ $8 23h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 35¢ $5 23h
Valorant: X-CAST vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Se BUY Gen.G Global Academy 63¢ $15 25h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 57¢ $10 25h
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Bald (+1.5) BUY Power Rangers 32¢ $5 25h
Chiba Lotte Marines vs. Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks BUY Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks 56¢ $5 26h
Valorant: ARETE vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY ARETE 22¢ $5 26h
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY MOUZ 65¢ $15 27h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY MOUZ 40¢ $8 27h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY MODUS 25¢ $8 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.59 · official $234.59 (match) · 3500 history records