Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:20:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee14…69ab other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-11%) realized −$16 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% $0
other 44% −$10
tech 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -12.6% -20.9% 25% 25% -46.3%
≤30d 4 -12.6% -20.9% 25% 25% -46.3%
≤90d 4 -12.6% -20.9% 25% 25% -46.3%
all 4 -12.6% -20.9% 25% 25% -46.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 25% -46.3%
10% -28.5% 25% -51.5%
15% -35.4% 25% -56.2%
20% -41.7% 25% -60.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)4 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 39¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Yes 33¢ 24¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Weed rescheduled by December 31? Yes 30¢ 27¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.52 · official $54.52 · 15 history records