Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:27:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EE 0xee11…83e8 crypto 1509 markets active 0h ago coverage 103d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$395 (+6%) realized +$395 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%800W / 708L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day26.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$6
14 days+$46
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$285
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 -0.4% -9.9% 54% 51% -10.9%
≤30d 945 +1.6% -8.1% 52% 49% -6.4%
≤90d 1369 +2.7% -7.0% 53% 50% -2.9%
all 1508 +2.4% -7.3% 53% 48% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 48% -5.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 42% -14.3%
15% -24.3% 36% -22.5%
20% -31.7% 29% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$395
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses800 / 708
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1508 / 1509
History coverage103d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day26.6
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1508 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Up 71¢ 64¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 444 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.22 · official $7.08 · 3500 history records