Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:45:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

EE 0xee0c…3e4d sports 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$117 (+11%) realized −$19 · open +$136

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate58%14W / 10L

Drawdown45%max

Avg bet$38per market

Trades / day4.2pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit90%portable

Net worth$362now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$22

7 days+$81

14 days+$70

30 days+$70

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-17.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-1.6%	-11.0%	67%	44%	+1.3%
≤30d	24	-8.4%	-17.1%	58%	33%	-2.2%
≤90d	24	-8.4%	-17.1%	58%	33%	-2.2%
all	24	-8.4%	-17.1%	58%	33%	-2.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-17.1%	33%	-2.2%
10%	-25.0%	33%	-11.5%
15%	-32.3%	29%	-20.1%
20%	-38.9%	17%	-27.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 58% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

36% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -15% → late -2% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$362

Realized−$19

Unrealized+$136

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses14 / 10

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions5

Markets (closed)24 / 29

History coverage13d

Avg bet$38

Trades / day4.2

Drawdown45%

Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Over	56¢	100¢	$100	$178	+$78 (+78%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5	Over	57¢	100¢	$40	$70	+$30 (+76%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Over	70¢	100¢	$40	$57	+$17 (+43%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5	Over	64¢	80¢	$30	$37	+$7 (+25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$16	$18	+$2 (+15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5	Jun 18	$10	$0	+3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Jun 18	$30	+$2	+5%
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	Jun 18	$41	−$37	-90%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$5	+$2	+43%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$31	−$3	-10%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$20	+$18	+89%
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5)	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-97%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Jun 18	$10	−$9	-89%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	Jun 18	$30	+$3	+10%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$30	+$2	+5%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 18	$10	+$6	+56%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 18	$10	+$5	+52%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$51	−$33	-65%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$51	+$19	+38%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$31	+$13	+42%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$201	+$51	+26%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Jun 12	$101	+$57	+56%
Heilbronn (Doubles): Jung/Uesugi vs Barrena/Nava	Jun 06	$100	+$7	+7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6?	Jun 06	$30	$0	-1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Jun 06	$10	+$1	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Jun 06	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Jun 06	$26	−$9	-33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Jun 06	$10	−$5	-52%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5	SELL Under	53¢	$10	4m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	50¢	$10	5m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	64¢	$30	17m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5	SELL Under	51¢	$3	29m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	59¢	$4	30m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	SELL Yes	36¢	$32	37m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	66¢	$10	52m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	71¢	$30	55m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	53¢	$10	1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	58¢	$30	1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	SELL Qatar	5¢	$4	1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$7	1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	69¢	$5	1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	BUY Qatar	45¢	$10	1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	41¢	$27	1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	56¢	$101	1h
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina?	SELL Yes	100¢	$38	2h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5)	BUY Switzerland	0¢	$10	2h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina	7¢	$1	3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	44¢	$31	3h
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	BUY Qatar	49¢	$30	3h
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	52¢	$20	3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	64¢	$33	3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	57¢	$30	4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	54¢	$32	4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	75¢	$16	4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	47¢	$10	4h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina	63¢	$10	4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	50¢	$30	5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5	SELL Over	17¢	$18	5h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $362.13 · official $362.13 (match) · 71 history records