Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee08…b48f other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$8
other 29% −$15
weather 3% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +3.3% -6.5% 40% 20% -6.1%
≤30d 11 +2.8% -7.0% 64% 9% -7.4%
≤90d 11 +2.8% -7.0% 64% 9% -7.4%
all 29 -5.5% -14.5% 38% 3% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 3% -10.7%
10% -22.7% 0% -19.2%
15% -30.1% 0% -27.0%
20% -37.0% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage473d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $9 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $29 +$4 +14%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $34 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $62 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $37 +$2 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $13 +$1 +10%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $36 $0 +0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 05 $2 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 04 $4 $0 -6%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Apr 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 03 $3 $0 -3%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 02 $15 $0 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 02 $0 $0 -9%
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in March 2025? Mar 31 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Mar 29 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 28 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Mar 20 $15 $0 +2%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? Mar 11 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $36 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $48 2h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $47 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $22 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $21 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $20 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $23 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $33 36h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 42¢ $7 41h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 42¢ $21 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $6 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $18 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $10 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $26 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $20 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $38 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.46 · official $35.47 (match) · 88 history records