trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? | No | 76¢ | 76¢ | $17 | $17 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Jun 14 | $16 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? | Jun 02 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? | Jun 01 | $105 | +$74 | +70% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | May 12 | $15 | +$4 | +28% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | May 01 | $10 | +$4 | +41% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? | Apr 14 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t | Apr 13 | $69 | +$34 | +49% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | Mar 30 | $61 | +$8 | +14% |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | Mar 04 | $28 | −$28 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | Mar 01 | $45 | +$16 | +35% |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | Feb 04 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 29 | $32 | −$22 | -68% |
| US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? | Jan 19 | $10 | −$4 | -40% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -65.8% | -69.1% | 33% | 0% | -59.1% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -45.4% | -50.6% | 40% | 20% | +23.3% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -19.5% | -27.1% | 60% | 50% | +19.2% |
| all | 15 | -31.2% | -37.7% | 47% | 40% | +2.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -37.7% | 40% | +2.0% |
| 10% | -43.7% | 33% | -7.8% |
| 15% | -49.1% | 20% | -16.7% |
| 20% | -54.1% | 7% | -24.9% |