Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:56:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EE 0xee05…127d crypto 149 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate74%111W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day75.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$20
sports 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 +0.4% -9.2% 74% 34% -11.5%
≤30d 149 +0.4% -9.2% 74% 34% -11.5%
≤90d 149 +0.4% -9.2% 74% 34% -11.5%
all 149 +0.4% -9.2% 74% 34% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 34% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 14% -20.0%
15% -25.8% 10% -27.7%
20% -33.1% 7% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses111 / 38
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)149 / 149
History coverage5d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day75.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$9 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$4 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $7 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $4 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 549 history records