Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:26:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EE 0xee02…ce88 weather 850 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$391 (+6%) realized +$392 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate66%483W / 250L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day68.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$82
14 days−$255
30 days+$179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$62
weather 37% −$30
sports 17% +$146
world 1% +$8
crypto 1% −$1
tech 1% +$16
politics 1% −$18
culture 0% −$5
finance 0% −$1
economics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 +43.9% +30.2% 51% 37% -20.5%
≤30d 733 +23.5% +11.8% 66% 40% -7.1%
≤90d 733 +23.5% +11.8% 66% 40% -7.1%
all 733 +23.5% +11.8% 66% 40% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.8% 40% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here +1.1% 32% -16.0%
15% -8.7% 24% -24.1%
20% -17.6% 18% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$392
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses483 / 250
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions31
Markets (closed)733 / 850
History coverage26d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day68.9
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 733 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 15? No 72¢ 100¢ $14 $20 +$6 (+39%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 3? No 35¢ 99¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+183%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? No 88¢ 88¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 15? No 56¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+78%)
Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-05-30? No 64¢ 85¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo win on 2026-05-22? Yes 33¢ 20¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-42%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 15? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 15? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +30%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$3 +51%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 15 $0 +$10 +9611%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Second half draw? Jun 15 $2 +$8 +335%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $7 +$3 +45%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $11 +$6 +50%
Spain to win the second half? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$7 -45%
Will Cuiabá EC vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +72%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 +$9 +669%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +49%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $19 −$9 -46%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $18 −$8 -44%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 13 $6 +$6 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Qatar to win the second half? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$9 +613%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$4 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AC Goianiense vs. CR Brasil end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$7 +285%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $3 −$1 -33%
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 −$9 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 −$7 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $8 54m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 54¢ $5 55m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 38¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 44¢ $4 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 67¢ $7 4h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $7 4h
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY No 14¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 55¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $10 8h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Second half draw? BUY No 23¢ $2 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 77¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 56¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $8 9h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $7 9h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY No 5¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $9 9h
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? BUY No 1¢ $0 10h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? BUY No 99¢ $10 10h
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? BUY No 84¢ $8 10h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? BUY No 98¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 69¢ $7 11h
Spain to win the second half? BUY No 47¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 83¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 30¢ $0 12h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 3 BUY No 35¢ $4 12h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 89¢ $9 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 65¢ $7 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.79 · official $46.98 (match) · 2435 history records