Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:44:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
ED 0xedff…3a46 sports 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$38 (-1%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate58%35W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$153
14 days+$73
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$63
sports 48% +$149
world 0% −$12
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -5.1% -14.1% 62% 17% -7.5%
≤30d 60 -6.0% -14.9% 58% 18% -8.6%
≤90d 60 -6.0% -14.9% 58% 18% -8.6%
all 60 -6.0% -14.9% 58% 18% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 18% -8.6%
10% -23.1% 5% -17.3%
15% -30.5% 3% -25.3%
20% -37.3% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses35 / 25
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage12d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $274 +$50 +18%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $144 +$11 +7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $491 +$76 +16%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $257 +$6 +2%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $489 +$25 +5%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $229 −$12 -5%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $65 −$18 -28%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $457 +$8 +2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $586 +$4 +1%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $234 +$5 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $235 −$17 -7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $234 −$1 -0%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 -1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $218 +$9 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $221 +$25 +12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $714 −$2 -0%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $58 −$1 -2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $32 +$1 +2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $34 +$3 +8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $104 +$7 +7%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $60 +$2 +3%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $61 +$4 +6%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$9 +22%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $40 +$3 +7%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 -17%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $65 −$16 -25%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$24 +46%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 −$61 -74%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 +$10 +13%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $141 +$22 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $130 +$2 +2%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 −$9 -9%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $141 +$19 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $72 −$17 -24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $140 +$4 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$2 +5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $30 +$3 +10%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 16 $45 −$15 -33%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $22 +$12 +55%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16 −$11 -70%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $26 −$12 -48%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -14%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $76 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $44 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $57 0m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $267 0m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 83¢ $274 1m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $50 15m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $44 15m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $50 15m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 15m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 92¢ $144 15m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 95¢ $278 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $262 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $257 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 87¢ $257 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 84¢ $289 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $234 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $514 3h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $489 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 46¢ $217 26h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $229 26h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 71¢ $47 27h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 97¢ $65 27h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $102 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $100 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $98 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $127 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 97¢ $127 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $133 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 94¢ $233 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 93¢ $230 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $230 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 91¢ $230 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 168 history records