Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:12:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedfb…2081 politics 24 markets active 2d ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$1
other 33% −$4
politics 12% +$6
crypto 6% −$1
tech 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.6% -12.7% 0% 0% -12.7%
≤30d 2 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 5 -3.2% -12.5% 0% 0% -10.0%
all 23 -3.3% -12.5% 43% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 4% -9.5%
10% -20.9% 4% -18.2%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage243d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 13 $22 −$1 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 19 $362 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 10 $77 $0 -0%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 23 $68 $0 -0%
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 17 $11 −$1 -12%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Mar 15 $11 $0 -2%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 06 $61 −$2 -4%
Solana Up or Down - February 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Feb 19 $13 $0 +3%
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? Feb 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Tarique Rahman be the next Prime Minister of Bangladesh after the Feb 11 $15 $0 -1%
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand? Feb 08 $17 +$5 +32%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? Jan 18 $17 $0 -2%
Will Union Progressiste pour le Renouveau (UPR) win the most seats in Jan 06 $18 $0 -1%
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? Jan 05 $52 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Dec 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Nov 30 $17 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Nov 27 $17 $0 +1%
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Nov 22 $2 $0 -1%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 22 $13 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 18 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 02 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections BUY Yes 83¢ $10 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $9 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $172 27d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $172 27d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $175 27d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $175 27d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $9 36d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $9 36d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $9 70d
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 98¢ $9 84d
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $9 84d
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 98¢ $29 84d
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 84d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $29 84d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 84d
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 98¢ $29 84d
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 84d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 84d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $10 89d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 80¢ $10 89d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 91¢ $11 91d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 81¢ $11 91d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 82¢ $11 100d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 65¢ $11 100d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 68¢ $12 104d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $12 104d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $13 107d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 107d
Solana Up or Down - February 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down $1 115d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $12 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.82 · official $9.82 (match) · 75 history records