Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:15:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
ED 0xedf7…5ac3 sports 331 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13,619 (+1%) realized +$13,624 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate88%292W / 38L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$3,040per market
Trades / day86.8pace
Fees−$343est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 37d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$2,371
politics 29% $0
other 7% +$910
crypto 3% +$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -1.6% -10.9% 95% 2% -9.1%
≤30d 252 -3.4% -12.6% 87% 3% -9.0%
≤90d 330 -3.0% -12.2% 88% 3% -9.2%
all 330 -3.0% -12.2% 88% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 3% -9.2%
10% -20.6% 1% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -28.3% 1% -25.8%
20% -35.3% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$2,970) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$131 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$13,624
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses292 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$343
Open positions1
Markets (closed)330 / 331
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$3,040
Trades / day86.8
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 61¢ 57¢ $107 $101 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $490 +$5 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,292 +$13 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $573 +$6 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2,970 +$30 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,520 +$15 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $2,970 +$30 +1%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $3,962 +$40 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $3,951 +$49 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $573 +$6 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3,960 +$40 +1%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $4,246 +$43 +1%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $604 +$6 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3,283 +$51 +2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $204 +$2 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 20 $5,646 +$57 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,139 +$12 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5,566 +$56 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $4,334 +$44 +1%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $296,647 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 20 $221 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $679 +$7 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $163 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $297 +$3 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $297 +$3 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $5,085 +$81 +2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $9,900 +$100 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10,561 +$95 +1%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $308 +$3 +1%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $1,445 +$15 +1%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $660 +$7 +1%
Canada vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $923 +$10 +1%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $894 +$9 +1%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $5,957 +$58 +1%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $952 +$187 +20%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $565 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3,251 +$33 +1%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5,296 +$54 +1%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1,875 +$19 +1%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5,638 +$57 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 18 $161 +$2 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $8,712 +$88 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1,320 +$13 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $148 +$2 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $7,500 +$73 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $871 +$9 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $71 +$4 +5%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $869 +$11 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $871 +$9 +1%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $1,967 +$33 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 99¢ $450 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $35 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $142 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $492 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $16 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $99 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $550 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $31 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $11 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $23 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $63 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $47 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $346 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $262 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $346 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $7 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $238 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $28 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $325 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $305 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $990 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $990 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $378 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.38 · official $101.38 (match) · 3500 history records