Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedf4…e4d2 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11,556 (-9%) realized −$11,244 · open −$312
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate79%26W / 7L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,728per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$124est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$7,388now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,043
7 days+$4,043
14 days−$5,205
30 days−$13,866
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$289
sports 24% −$12,433
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +10.8% +0.3% 100% 25% -0.2%
≤30d 16 -17.3% -25.2% 69% 25% -23.5%
≤90d 33 -2.8% -12.0% 79% 36% -19.1%
all 33 -2.8% -12.0% 79% 36% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 36% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 12% -26.9%
15% -28.1% 0% -33.9%
20% -35.2% 0% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$3,179) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$361 vs −$3,029 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$7,388
Realized−$11,244
Unrealized−$312
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses26 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$124
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage42d
Avg bet$3,728
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 93¢ 89¢ $7,700 $7,388 −$312 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $12,124 +$1,163 +10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $8,109 +$1,845 +23%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7,669 +$446 +6%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $11,534 +$589 +5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $9,814 −$9,787 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8,715 +$540 +6%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,625 −$19 -1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $6,164 +$1,495 +24%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $6,206 −$6,206 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $1,974 −$1,962 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $3,191 −$3,179 -100%
Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $3,006 +$186 +6%
Will Academia Puerto Cabello win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $2,797 +$206 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic May 27 $2,693 +$106 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 27 $2,249 +$444 +20%
Will Montevideo City Torque win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $1,975 +$268 +14%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin May 25 $1,786 +$213 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik May 24 $1,651 +$137 +8%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $1,532 +$115 +8%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $403 +$117 +29%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,157 +$253 +22%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,187 −$23 -2%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $1,115 +$70 +6%
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $997 +$120 +12%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $1,817 +$216 +12%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $1,623 +$195 +12%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,419 +$204 +14%
Will Eyüpspor win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,449 −$30 -2%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,039 +$63 +6%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $1,333 +$52 +4%
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $1,258 +$76 +6%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $1,157 +$100 +9%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $537 +$156 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 93¢ $7,717 57m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 83¢ $1,925 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 83¢ $15 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 83¢ $30 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 83¢ $3,853 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 83¢ $281 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 83¢ $49 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 83¢ $5 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 83¢ $827 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 83¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 83¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 83¢ $564 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 83¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 83¢ $15 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 83¢ $5 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 83¢ $43 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 83¢ $15 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 83¢ $15 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 83¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $7,740 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $8,109 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $8,115 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 94¢ $7,669 24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 91¢ $12,124 35h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $11,534 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 91¢ $5 13d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 91¢ $9,809 13d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $440 14d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $9 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,388.20 · official $7,367.41 (match) · 163 history records