Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedf4…ba60 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-6%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$9
politics 30% −$1
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -18.5% -26.2% 0% 0% -18.9%
≤30d 4 -18.5% -26.2% 0% 0% -18.9%
≤90d 4 -18.5% -26.2% 0% 0% -18.9%
all 4 -18.5% -26.2% 0% 0% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 0% -18.9%
10% -33.3% 0% -26.7%
15% -39.7% 0% -33.7%
20% -45.7% 0% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 25 $29 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $53 −$3 -5%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? Jun 24 $5 $0 -4%
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%? Jun 24 $10 −$6 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records