Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedf3…02d2 crypto 273 markets active 3d ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$813 (-6%) realized −$813 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%122W / 146L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$138
14 days−$138
30 days−$441
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$969
finance 11% −$69
other 3% +$2
world 2% −$4
sports 2% −$121
weather 1% −$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -2.4% -11.7% 49% 49% -17.8%
≤30d 84 -11.4% -19.8% 44% 42% -21.0%
≤90d 268 -9.8% -18.4% 46% 43% -17.9%
all 268 -9.8% -18.4% 46% 43% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 43% -17.9%
10% -26.2% 42% -25.7%
15% -33.3% 39% -32.9%
20% -39.9% 30% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$32 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$813
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses122 / 146
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)268 / 273
History coverage56d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 268 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$4 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $49 −$48 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$21 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$10 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$11 +356%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$16 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $80 −$24 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$10 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$19 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $40 −$28 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $65 +$23 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $49 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$49 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$21 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $58 −$40 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $47 +$24 +50%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $28 +$69 +249%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $33 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET Jun 11 $89 +$45 +51%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $39 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$12 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$16 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $18 +$14 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $51 −$35 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 31 $68 −$67 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? May 31 $185 −$38 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 21 $59 −$57 -97%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $48 +$11 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 21 $52 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 2PM ET May 21 $95 +$40 +42%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $101 +$42 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 21 $17 +$8 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 39¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $47 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $49 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 35¢ $22 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $49 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $32 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $40 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $70 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $18 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 636 history records