Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:13:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
ED 0xedf2…326a crypto 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,415 (-16%) realized −$2,193 · open −$222
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%38W / 42L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$371
7 days−$2,419
14 days−$2,233
30 days−$1,840
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% −$1,676
other 28% −$272
crypto 25% +$341
sports 16% −$777
politics 2% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -25.0% -32.2% 45% 39% -36.6%
≤30d 74 -12.4% -20.7% 46% 41% -25.7%
≤90d 80 -11.7% -20.1% 48% 42% -24.5%
all 80 -11.7% -20.1% 48% 42% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 42% -24.5%
10% -27.8% 31% -31.7%
15% -34.8% 21% -38.3%
20% -41.2% 18% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -12% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$119 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$1,342
Realized−$2,193
Unrealized−$222
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses38 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions6
Markets (closed)80 / 86
History coverage69d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 84¢ 69¢ $504 $417 −$87 (-17%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $280 $338 +$58 (+21%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? No 88¢ 80¢ $264 $240 −$24 (-9%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 17¢ 8¢ $300 $154 −$146 (-49%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 63¢ 51¢ $130 $105 −$25 (-19%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $86 $87 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $542 +$115 +21%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $440 +$70 +16%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $64 +$16 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $604 −$600 -99%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $89 +$11 +12%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $301 +$32 +11%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $92 +$12 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$44 +216%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $202 +$84 +42%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $161 +$49 +31%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $39 −$3 -8%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$54 -89%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $270 +$3 +1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -77%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $19 −$17 -88%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $501 +$9 +2%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $62 −$40 -65%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $19 −$14 -74%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $390 +$120 +31%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $106 +$74 +70%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $103 +$27 +26%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$23 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 +$2 +6%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $236 +$40 +17%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $204 +$96 +47%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $209 −$209 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $520 −$520 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $66 +$36 +55%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $40 +$60 +150%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $353 +$120 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 6? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 7? Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? Jun 13 $90 −$90 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Jun 13 $1,361 −$1,361 -100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $180 −$125 -70%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $39 −$3 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 63¢ $131 40m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 88¢ $146 41m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 88¢ $8 41m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 88¢ $71 42m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 88¢ $39 42m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $283 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $140 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 53¢ $51 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $402 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY No 80¢ $64 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 86¢ $440 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 78¢ $604 6h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $60 8h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 9h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 89¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 89¢ $80 9h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 89¢ $8 9h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 9h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 88¢ $92 9h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 90¢ $301 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 84¢ $46 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 84¢ $4 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 84¢ $203 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 84¢ $211 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 84¢ $33 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $73 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,341.60 · official $1,343.72 (match) · 240 history records