Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:41:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xeded…0a7e politics 7 markets active 5h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-10%) realized −$33 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$24
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 98% −$22
sports 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -48.7% -53.6% 25% 25% -19.2%
≤30d 6 -35.8% -41.9% 17% 17% -18.9%
≤90d 6 -35.8% -41.9% 17% 17% -18.9%
all 6 -35.8% -41.9% 17% 17% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.9% 17% -18.9%
10% -47.5% 0% -26.7%
15% -52.6% 0% -33.8%
20% -57.2% 0% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$9 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage9d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes $2 $5 +$3 (+160%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$3 -57%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 16 $63 −$35 -56%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 14 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $154 +$16 +10%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $31 −$2 -6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $17 −$2 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $2 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 20¢ $2 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $5 8h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $5 8h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $1 12h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $1 12h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $6 35h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $1 37h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $2 5d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $7 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $3 5d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 20¢ $21 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $14 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 30¢ $3 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 10¢ $31 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 32¢ $3 7d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 17¢ $11 7d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 27¢ $18 7d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 29¢ $29 7d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 30¢ $31 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $20 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No $2 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 20¢ $8 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 20¢ $52 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 24¢ $9 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 29¢ $40 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 33¢ $3 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 56¢ $13 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.21 · official $5.21 (match) · 34 history records