Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:38:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xeded…4dca crypto 264 markets active 3d ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$267 (-2%) realized −$267 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%131W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day30.5pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$219
14 days−$148
30 days−$784
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$264
other 50% −$565
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -11.4% -19.9% 53% 35% -14.3%
≤30d 259 -7.4% -16.2% 50% 42% -15.9%
≤90d 264 -8.0% -16.7% 50% 42% -15.9%
all 264 -8.0% -16.7% 50% 42% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 42% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 34% -24.0%
15% -32.0% 30% -31.3%
20% -38.7% 23% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$20 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$267
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses131 / 133
Open positions0
Markets (closed)264 / 264
History coverage32d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day30.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 264 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $44 −$21 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$9 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$155 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $34 +$32 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$28 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $73 +$56 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $88 −$28 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $61 −$40 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $71 −$59 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $46 −$31 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $149 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $83 +$67 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $81 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $92 −$25 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $171 +$46 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $62 −$56 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $124 +$50 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $87 +$29 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $128 +$13 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$28 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $92 +$13 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $71 +$20 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $47 +$44 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $118 −$80 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $144 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$30 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $77 +$32 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$22 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $154 −$76 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $202 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $127 −$14 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $129 +$25 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $130 −$9 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $24 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $57 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $27 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $24 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1016 history records