Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:17:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xede7…e982 other 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,320 (-1%) realized −$1,320 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,281per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$13
14 days−$30
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$163
politics 41% −$73
sports 3% −$1,138
tech 1% +$1
economics 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$4
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 43 +5.2% -4.8% 14% 7% -9.4%
≤90d 106 +3.1% -6.7% 12% 8% -10.4%
all 112 +2.9% -6.9% 12% 8% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 8% -10.4%
10% -15.8% 8% -19.0%
15% -23.9% 8% -26.8%
20% -31.4% 6% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,726) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$18 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,320
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 112
History coverage94d
Avg bet$1,281
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $1,507 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $2,948 −$4 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2,363 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $1,998 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $304 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $982 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,035 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,443 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,388 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $2,661 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,120 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,208 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 14 $489 +$2 +0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $741 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $909 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,124 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $3,784 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,660 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,026 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,475 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $73 +$32 +44%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $2,976 −$4 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $3,144 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $76 +$74 +97%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $874 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $71 +$61 +86%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $220 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $427 +$3 +1%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,988 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,114 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $949 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $4,655 −$5 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $2,623 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $845 −$1 -0%
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,829 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $850 −$1 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $79 +$106 +134%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $887 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $366 1h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $366 6h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $625 21h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $626 24h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $565 25h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $566 27h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $360 27h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $360 31h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $669 46h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $670 47h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $457 2d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $458 2d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $303 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $304 6d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $981 7d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $982 7d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,033 7d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,035 7d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $763 7d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $764 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $887 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $889 8d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $866 8d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $867 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $735 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $736 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $885 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $886 9d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $871 10d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $872 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 411 history records