Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:20:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
ED 0xede5…2554 crypto 498 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (295 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22,447 (-42%) realized −$22,445 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%277W / 220L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day295.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6,088
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (295 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 231 +0.5% -9.1% 49% 47% -36.9%
≤30d 497 +13.2% +2.4% 56% 53% -21.0%
≤90d 497 +13.2% +2.4% 56% 53% -21.0%
all 497 +13.2% +2.4% 56% 53% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover295.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.4% 53% -21.0%
10% ← realistic here -7.4% 47% -28.5%
15% -16.3% 38% -35.4%
20% -24.5% 29% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +23% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$101 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$22,445
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses277 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)497 / 498
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$109
Trades / day295.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 497 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 49¢ 50¢ $20 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 197 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $114 +$29 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$14 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$11 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $57 +$18 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $279 +$256 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $220 +$50 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $109 −$21 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $67 +$22 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $229 +$70 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $206 +$79 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $69 −$67 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $55 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$16 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $47 +$14 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$17 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$11 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$25 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$6 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $152 +$15 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$4 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $153 +$31 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $219 −$12 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$8 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $115 +$45 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$11 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $225 +$18 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$14 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$6 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $183 −$176 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$10 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $22 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $7 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $14 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $8 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $129 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $24 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $7 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $12 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $9 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $258 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $211 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $89 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $109 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $88 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $67 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $19 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $85 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $195 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.25 · official $21.55 · 3500 history records