Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:20:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xeddd…0648 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$128 (-27%) realized −$128 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%6W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$133
14 days−$133
30 days−$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$85
sports 12% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-44.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -39.0% -44.8% 30% 30% -33.4%
≤30d 20 -39.0% -44.8% 30% 30% -33.4%
≤90d 20 -39.0% -44.8% 30% 30% -33.4%
all 20 -39.0% -44.8% 30% 30% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.8% 30% -33.4%
10% -50.1% 30% -39.8%
15% -54.9% 30% -45.6%
20% -59.3% 25% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$19 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$128
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses6 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage41d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$7 -47%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $33 +$24 +73%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $7 −$6 -89%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -96%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$17 -67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$22 +86%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$14 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$26 +101%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$42 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$10 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 17h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 18h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $7 30h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 31h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $8 31h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 31h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $13 31h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 36h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $12 36h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 42h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 47h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $39 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $25 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.76 · official $24.76 (match) · 42 history records