Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xeddb…a8fe crypto 966 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$190 (-5%) realized −$190 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate75%728W / 237L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$30
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$227
other 0% −$2
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -1.3% -10.7% 82% 70% -11.1%
≤30d 533 -6.9% -15.8% 73% 28% -15.0%
≤90d 965 -7.3% -16.1% 75% 34% -15.6%
all 965 -7.3% -16.1% 75% 34% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 34% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 11% -23.7%
15% -31.5% 7% -31.0%
20% -38.2% 5% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$190
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses728 / 237
Open positions1
Markets (closed)965 / 966
History coverage59d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 965 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Down 84¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 05 $3 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -52%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 -12%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 35m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 40m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 45m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 50m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.53 · official $3.42 · 2547 history records