Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:10:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
ED 0xedda…7d3e crypto 981 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$116 (+2%) realized +$116 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate75%739W / 242L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day88.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$38
14 days+$22
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 +2.9% -6.9% 76% 21% -6.2%
≤30d 981 +5.2% -4.8% 75% 45% -9.1%
≤90d 981 +5.2% -4.8% 75% 45% -9.1%
all 981 +5.2% -4.8% 75% 45% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 45% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 20% -17.8%
15% -22.2% 7% -25.8%
20% -29.9% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses739 / 242
Open positions0
Markets (closed)981 / 981
History coverage20d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day88.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 981 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$4 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.00 · official $12.00 (match) · 2645 history records