Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:52:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
ED 0xedda…2e39 other 271 markets active 12h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$804 (-2%) realized −$838 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%108W / 155L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$259now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$172
14 days−$187
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$702
world 6% −$256
crypto 5% −$238
politics 5% −$210
finance 2% +$34
sports 1% +$167
culture 0% +$47
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +18.0% +6.8% 62% 62% -26.2%
≤30d 25 -15.5% -23.6% 40% 40% -24.4%
≤90d 96 -8.3% -17.0% 44% 39% -15.0%
all 263 -5.9% -14.8% 41% 36% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 36% -13.3%
10% -23.0% 29% -21.6%
15% -30.4% 23% -29.2%
20% -37.2% 16% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$38 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$259
Realized−$838
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses108 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions8
Markets (closed)263 / 271
History coverage241d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $50 $84 +$34 (+67%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 91 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 22 $30 +$32 +105%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 +$19 +64%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $30 +$14 +45%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $40 +$17 +43%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $30 +$24 +78%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $111 +$97 +88%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 −$1 -5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $30 +$27 +90%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 17 $431 −$356 -83%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 17 $92 +$16 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$16 -54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $91 −$20 -22%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $30 −$13 -43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $193 +$65 +34%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 02 $42 −$40 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 02 $21 −$20 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Jun 01 $10 −$5 -47%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $31 +$58 +188%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $30 +$32 +106%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $100 +$13 +13%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week May 22 $609 +$131 +22%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 22 $445 −$2 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 20 $30 −$5 -17%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $72 −$17 -23%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week May 09 $329 +$94 +29%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? May 09 $55 +$44 +81%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 08 $15 +$27 +180%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $6 +$22 +391%
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $130 −$129 -99%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $103 +$50 +49%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? Apr 29 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? Apr 28 $240 −$113 -47%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 24 $130 −$130 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $172 −$10 -6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Apr 24 $30 +$1 +5%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) Apr 23 $30 +$26 +86%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $29 −$7 -24%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $179 +$16 +9%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $147 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 21 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $50 −$25 -49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $115 −$115 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 11h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 77¢ $50 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $30 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 94¢ $44 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 94¢ $58 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $40 2d
Germany leading at halftime? SELL No 94¢ $54 3d
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 3d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $28 3d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $2 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 49¢ $29 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $51 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $9 4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $30 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $51 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $31 4d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $30 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 25¢ $14 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $15 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $31 5d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week SELL Yes 5¢ $18 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week SELL Yes 18¢ $57 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL No 20¢ $19 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY No 28¢ $27 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 16¢ $14 7d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY No 28¢ $1 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $31 7d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 49¢ $1 7d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 49¢ $15 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $259.40 · official $259.40 (match) · 1362 history records