Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:28:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
ED 0xedd9…f79b other 7 markets active 3h ago coverage 471d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$85,328 (+171%) realized +$85,137 · open +$191
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$7,128per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$5,080now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96,730
7 days+$89,830
14 days+$89,830
30 days+$89,830
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$90,022
crypto 8% −$4,113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+40.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +133.3% +111.0% 50% 50% +189.6%
≤30d 4 +133.3% +111.0% 50% 50% +189.6%
≤90d 4 +133.3% +111.0% 50% 50% +189.6%
all 6 +55.5% +40.7% 33% 33% +163.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +40.7% 33% +163.1%
10% ← realistic here +27.2% 33% +137.9%
15% +14.9% 33% +114.9%
20% +3.7% 33% +93.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +220% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +191% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
104.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51,215 vs −$4,178 · ×12.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.13 per $1 lost it wins $6.13
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$5,080
Realized+$85,137
Unrealized+$191
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage471d
Avg bet$7,128
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $4,889 $5,080 +$191 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14,500 +$35,500 +245%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13,709 +$66,930 +488%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5,700 −$5,700 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6,900 −$6,900 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Jul 09 $4,104 −$4,102 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Mar 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $166 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $46 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,079.99 · official $5,099.99 (match) · 751 history records