Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:02:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
ED 0xedd9…cbf9 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% $0
politics 29% $0
crypto 12% $0
sports 6% $0
economics 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 12 -0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.5%
all 17 -0.0% -9.5% 12% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage107d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $106 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $106 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $106 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $106 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 13 $106 $0 +0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $106 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $107 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $108 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $108 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $108 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $108 $0 +0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 23 $108 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Mar 17 $108 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $108 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 10 $108 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 06 $108 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 03 $108 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $106 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $102 12h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $4 12h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $106 12d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $106 12d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $106 21d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $106 21d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $106 30d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 30d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $69 30d
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $106 36d
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $106 36d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $106 43d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $106 44d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $107 60d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $107 60d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $107 63d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $108 63d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $108 66d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $108 67d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $108 71d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $108 72d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $108 80d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $108 81d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $108 87d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $108 87d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $108 92d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $108 93d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $108 95d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $108 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records