Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:22:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedd8…b939 sports 468 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$383 (-15%) realized −$295 · open −$88
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%195W / 187L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$447now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% −$142
crypto 34% −$89
politics 19% −$45
world 7% −$109
other 6% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -24.7% -31.9% 25% 0% -19.7%
≤30d 23 -17.0% -24.9% 39% 17% -38.9%
≤90d 338 -4.2% -13.4% 51% 47% -13.6%
all 382 -5.0% -14.0% 51% 46% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 46% -23.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 41% -30.6%
15% -29.7% 36% -37.3%
20% -36.6% 30% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$447
Realized−$295
Unrealized−$88
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses195 / 187
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions86
Markets (closed)382 / 468
History coverage92d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 86 History 382 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $77 $79 +$2 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $67 $69 +$2 (+3%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 82¢ 88¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 10¢ 20¢ $7 $15 +$8 (+107%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 38¢ 10¢ $49 $12 −$37 (-75%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 84¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Yes 86¢ 85¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No 70¢ 66¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will Republican Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? No 93¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 18¢ $4 $9 +$4 (+94%)
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024? Yes 94¢ 88¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05? No 63¢ 94¢ $4 $7 +$2 (+49%)
Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 26¢ $2 $6 +$5 (+333%)
Will Latonya Reeves be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? Yes 11¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Will Marquita Bradshaw be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tennessee? Yes 70¢ 64¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-8%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Josh Elliott win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election? No 95¢ 94¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Tyler Kistner be the Republican Nominee for MN-02? No 96¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? No 66¢ 73¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 82¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 15¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-69%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No 94¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 $0 -2%
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? Jun 10 $2 $0 -2%
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gerlando Alonge win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 08 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary elec Jun 07 $8 $0 -4%
Will Yousef Rabhi be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Jun 04 $2 $0 +14%
Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? Jun 04 $3 $0 +3%
Will Duke Rodriguez win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primar Jun 03 $3 $0 +10%
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary ele Jun 02 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $3 $0 -5%
Will Marcelo Maranata win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? May 31 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el May 30 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Nicholas Sciretta be the Democratic nominee for NY-04? May 25 $4 $0 +2%
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $4 $0 +7%
Will Jo Rae Perkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon? May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Christina Bohannan be the Democratic Nominee for IA-01? May 22 $10 $0 -1%
Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? May 20 $2 $0 +20%
Will David Scott be the Democratic nominee for GA-13? May 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele May 18 $2 $0 -18%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 17 $2 $0 -7%
Will Joe Johnson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon? May 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will José Williams finish in fourth place in the first round of the 20 May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Enrique Valderrama finish in fourth place in the first round of t May 16 $3 −$2 -73%
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential ele May 14 $2 $0 +7%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 14 $66 +$3 +5%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Zachary Shrewsbury be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West V May 13 $6 −$5 -86%
Will Monaco finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings? May 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? May 09 $4 −$4 -89%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 09 $23 +$12 +53%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $3 +$3 +113%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will David Roth be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Idaho? Apr 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungaria Apr 18 $8 +$2 +31%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl Apr 18 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 18 $2 +$2 +150%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs METANOIA WOLVES - Map 1 Winner Apr 14 $2 −$1 -38%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 14 $2 −$1 -36%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 13 $2 −$1 -30%
Counter-Strike: Vexa vs MAGICOS - Map 1 Winner Apr 13 $2 −$1 -28%
Counter-Strike: ZOTIX vs SINQU (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Se Apr 13 $4 $0 -1%
Will Welsh Labour win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election Apr 13 $7 $0 +4%
Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Team Essence (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Apr 13 $4 −$2 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY Yes 43¢ $2 1h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY No 50¢ $2 1h
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 7h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL Yes 62¢ $5 8h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 57¢ $2 33h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 55¢ $2 33h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 55¢ $2 33h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $2 36h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $2 36h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 37h
Will Željka Cvijanović be the Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Her SELL Yes 75¢ $4 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 3d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $0 3d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $0 3d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $0 3d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $0 3d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $0 3d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 4d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 4d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 4d
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 6d
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 6d
Haiti elections delayed again? BUY No 35¢ $2 6d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 59¢ $0 6d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 59¢ $0 6d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 59¢ $0 6d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 59¢ $0 6d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 59¢ $0 6d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 59¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $447.35 · official $444.78 (match) · 2497 history records