Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:54:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

ED 0xedd6…464e other 26 markets active 18h ago coverage 144d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$126 (-34%) realized −$140 · open +$14

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip

Net edge-49%after slip

Net WR22%break-even

Win rate22%5W / 18L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$2

7 days−$64

14 days−$64

30 days−$64

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +22%

net ROI/market (all)-49.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-35.8%	-41.9%	22%	22%	-41.2%
≤30d	18	-35.8%	-41.9%	22%	22%	-41.2%
≤90d	18	-35.8%	-41.9%	22%	22%	-41.2%
all	23	-43.7%	-49.1%	22%	22%	-54.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-49.1%	22%	-54.8%
10%	-53.9%	22%	-59.1%
15%	-58.4%	17%	-63.1%
20%	-62.5%	17%	-66.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -44% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -61% → late -28% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$15 vs −$12 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.34 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage

Net worth$84

Realized−$140

Unrealized+$14

Win rate (resolved)22%

Wins / losses5 / 18

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)23 / 26

History coverage144d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	Yes	8¢	10¢	$50	$62	+$12 (+24%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	No	59¢	72¢	$10	$12	+$2 (+23%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	79¢	79¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	+$30	+291%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$10	+$18	+180%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-96%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$10	+$9	+86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$10	+$13	+128%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 11	$10	−$10	-99%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$10	−$4	-37%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Jan 30	$30	−$30	-100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Jan 30	$20	−$19	-93%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Jan 30	$20	−$20	-100%
US government shutdown Saturday?	Jan 28	$20	−$20	-100%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan	Jan 25	$20	+$6	+32%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	59¢	$10	17h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	44¢	$10	17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	25¢	$10	21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	31¢	$10	21h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	79¢	$10	21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL No	0¢	$0	21h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	BUY Yes	8¢	$52	36h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	19¢	$10	46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	30¢	$10	46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	34¢	$10	46h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	1¢	$0	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	35¢	$10	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	21¢	$10	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	71¢	$10	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	53¢	$10	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	22¢	$10	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	20¢	$10	4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	23¢	$10	4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	24¢	$23	5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	10¢	$10	5d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	65¢	$10	5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	BUY South Africa	61¢	$10	6d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Knicks	4¢	$6	6d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	6¢	$10	6d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	9¢	$30	138d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	SELL No	0¢	$1	138d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	BUY No	32¢	$20	138d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	BUY No	7¢	$20	138d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.06 · official $84.40 (match) · 37 history records