Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:37:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

ED 0xedd4…7ca1 crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$539 (-2%) realized −$511 · open −$28

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate65%15W / 8L

Whale WR67%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,243per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Kalshi-fit96%portable

Net worth$1,584now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days+$0

30 days+$204

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)-21.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	2	+13.4%	+2.6%	100%	50%	+5.3%
≤90d	3	+4.7%	-5.3%	67%	33%	-15.1%
all	23	-12.9%	-21.2%	65%	35%	-11.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-21.2%	35%	-11.3%
10%	-28.8%	17%	-19.8%
15%	-35.6%	17%	-27.5%
20%	-42.0%	9%	-34.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% too few recent

Fragile wins

40% wins margin < slip thin win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 67% (≥$2,134) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -20% → late -6% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$200 vs −$443 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.85 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage

Net worth$1,584

Realized−$511

Unrealized−$28

Win rate (resolved)65%

Wins / losses15 / 8

Whale WR (big bets)67%

Open positions1

Markets (closed)23 / 24

History coverage223d

Avg bet$1,243

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29?	No	84¢	82¢	$1,612	$1,584	−$28 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 16-22?	Jun 20	$3	$0	+10%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	Jun 08	$1,243	+$203	+16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	May 20	$4,283	−$546	-13%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 10-16?	Feb 17	$5,190	+$263	+5%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 3-9?	Feb 09	$465	+$35	+8%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase February 3-9?	Feb 09	$3,527	+$413	+12%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Feb 06	$10	−$10	-100%
Once Upon a Farm IPO before 2027?	Feb 06	$10	−$10	-100%
US government shutdown Saturday?	Jan 29	$51	+$67	+132%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase January 13-19?	Jan 20	$2,711	+$1,155	+43%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase January 6-12?	Jan 12	$9	+$1	+11%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 28?	Dec 26	$9	−$9	-100%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?	Dec 26	$12	−$12	-100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 16-22?	Dec 23	$1,130	+$124	+11%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 16-22?	Dec 23	$2,134	+$205	+10%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 9-15?	Dec 15	$765	+$22	+3%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 9-15?	Dec 15	$1,973	+$127	+6%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?	Dec 09	$39	−$39	-100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?	Dec 08	$347	+$308	+89%
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Nov 29	$466	−$466	-100%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30?	Nov 29	$3,100	−$2,449	-79%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase November 18-24?	Nov 29	$149	+$53	+36%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase November 11-17?	Nov 17	$500	+$17	+4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29?	BUY No	90¢	$208	1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29?	BUY No	85¢	$196	1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29?	BUY No	85¢	$129	1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29?	BUY No	85¢	$255	1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29?	BUY No	80¢	$112	1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29?	BUY No	80¢	$128	1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29?	BUY No	81¢	$328	1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29?	BUY No	85¢	$266	1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29?	SELL Yes	15¢	$23	2h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29?	BUY Yes	51¢	$42	2d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29?	BUY Yes	51¢	$39	2d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 16-22?	SELL Yes	57¢	$3	8d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 16-22?	BUY Yes	50¢	$3	9d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	BUY Yes	86¢	$581	21d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	BUY Yes	86¢	$6	21d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	BUY Yes	86¢	$31	21d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	BUY Yes	86¢	$60	21d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	BUY Yes	86¢	$301	21d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	BUY Yes	86¢	$182	21d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	BUY Yes	85¢	$57	21d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	BUY Yes	85¢	$26	21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL Yes	22¢	$516	38d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL Yes	42¢	$993	42d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	57¢	$1,202	44d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL Yes	44¢	$1,203	45d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	40¢	$497	45d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL Yes	45¢	$500	46d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	40¢	$49	46d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	35¢	$385	46d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	35¢	$420	46d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,584.00 · official $1,593.60 (match) · 155 history records