Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
ED 0xedd0…b405 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$180 (-6%) realized −$180 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$591per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$177
tech 41% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 +33.6% +20.9% 67% 33% -7.4%
≤90d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 25% -20.7%
all 5 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 20% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 20% -15.0%
10% -18.0% 20% -23.1%
15% -26.0% 20% -30.5%
20% -33.2% 20% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$69 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$180
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage110d
Avg bet$591
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Jun 17 $1,200 −$1 -0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 25 $30 +$30 +100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,040 (HIGH) in February 2026? May 25 $4 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Mar 28 $210 −$207 -98%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO Feb 27 $1,511 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records