Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:20:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedce…3baf world 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% −$1
other 9% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 17 +0.5% -9.1% 35% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 17 +0.5% -9.1% 35% 0% -9.6%
all 25 +0.5% -9.1% 48% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.5%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage453d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $41 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $87 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $22 $0 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $95 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $42 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $44 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $79 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $17 −$1 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $42 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $40 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -5%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $10 $0 +3%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 24 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $41 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $6 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $33 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $2 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $41 41h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 47h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 47h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $22 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $22 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $9 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $46 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $38 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $21 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $20 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 65¢ $42 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $7 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.17 · official $41.17 (match) · 86 history records